Christine Hudnall

Edited:

Yeah! Back to normal now, forecast and discussion has been updated. :) We are no longer under a SEE TEXT, but a SLGT risk now.

…FL…
SIMILAR SETUP ACROSS FL PENINSULA TO WED WITH STEEPER THAN USUAL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH DRIER AIR IN MID LEVELS. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE VICINITY E COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IN
THE N AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE S WHERE THERE IS ONGOING
ELEVATED CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND WET MICRO BURSTS.

Think we have a slight problem here…

Here is the Day 1 Outlook Graph:

Here is the Forecast Discussion that went with it:

SPC AC 190601

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN
   PLAINS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PERSISTENT AND SEASONABLY COLD UPR LOW OVER SERN CANADA WILL SHIFT
   SLOWLY NE TODAY...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO BUILDS N.
   IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A MODESTLY FAST FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST...
   CARRYING NUMEROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FROM THE E PAC BASIN/
   WRN U.S. TO THE PLAINS.

   ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD AT THIS
   TIME ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
   CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER MUCH OF NEB...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
   LIKELY INHIBITING THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING.  THE TRAILING PORTION OF A SURFACE
   TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY SHOULD EXTEND
   WWD ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

   SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
   60S/ COMBINED WITH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN
   MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY PEAK
   HEATING.

   ASCENT SPREADING EWD WITH THE GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
   EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING WITH
   NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ANY MORNING TSTM
   ACTIVITY THAT REMAINS ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
   UNCERTAINTY OF PLACEMENT OF ONGOING MORNING TSTM CLUSTERS/ATTENDANT
   CLOUDINESS AT 12Z...AND THEIR AFFECTS ON NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER
   TODAY...THIS OUTLOOK WILL NOT INCLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES GREATER
   THAN 15%.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT
   FROM NEB SWD SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.  VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM WRN NEB SWD TO THE
   OK/TX PANHANDLES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONGEST DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD COINCIDE.  MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   MAY BE SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW TORNADOES FROM SRN NEB SWD THROUGH WRN
   KS/ERN CO TO THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK.

   GREATER CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE MCSS
   THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE SRN
   PLAINS AND KS ACTIVITY EVOLVES/GROWS UPSCALE WITH AN MCS MOVING
   SSEWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/MUCH OF OK INTO N TX BY 12Z FRIDAY.  A
   SECOND MCS MAY TRACK ESEWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN MO.

   FARTHER S...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM NRN MEXICO...IS
   EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD TODAY REACHING SERN NM/SW TX THIS AFTERNOON.
   ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS
   REGION.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS /WY-MT/...
   AS THE UPR LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NWD ON THURSDAY...TSTM
   POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DECREASE...BUT NOT BE ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
   FORECAST.  A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP ALONG THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN.  ALTHOUGH COMPARATIVELY DRIER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...A NARROW
   TONGUE OF MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEG F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESIDE
   INVOF THE FRONT.  DIURNAL UPSLOPE WINDS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SRN MT/ERN WY.  STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   PROGGED TO BE OVER WY WHERE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL MAY
   OCCUR.  OTHERWISE...FARTHER N...ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
   ORGANIZED WITH ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

   ...DAKOTAS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
   MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
   TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN SD AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  WEAK
   FORCING ALOFT MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
   TSTMS.  HOWEVER...30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPE UP TO 1000
   J/KG SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH ISOLATED
   HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ...ERN MA TO NRN NEW ENGLAND...
   A MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH
   COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -22C/ AND SURFACE HEATING WILL
   RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES.  TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
   REGION...WITH ISOLATED HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   ..PETERS/HURLBUT.. 06/19/2008

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z


   CURRENT UTC TIME: 0920Z (5:20AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

If you notice in the graph, Florida has a SEE TEXT box, but you won’t find the corresponding text in the discussion.

I think this is an oops. ;-)