Christine Hudnall

Tropical Storm Fay

Could we possibly have landfall - taken 20080819 081526z? If it is - where is she off to now?

Hmmm - will she be knocking on my door?

Mike Hollingshead’s Storm Structure 101 DVD

Price:$25.00 (Includes everything - shipping, handling & postage)

Length: 1:51:30 (Including intro & credits)

Best Part: The final panning shot at end of credits - Simply amazing, beautiful, fascinating and terrifying to look at!

Worst Part: Knowing Mike was filming and driving at the same time!

Ordering: Extremely easy using PayPal. No need to have an account with them even, although I have since 2002, but still, even without one it is easy.

Shipping: Super fast! I ordered it late Tuesday afternoon (after 5pm EDT) and received it in the mail Friday (mine arrives around 12:30pm EDT). Not too shabby! It arrived in a padded envelope which is cool, and since it wasn’t torn up I can reuse it. :D

DVD Case: Thank you Mike! Why? For sending it in a case that doesn’t take up a lot of room on the shelf and for having a case that makes it easy to get the DVD out of it. No scraped or bruised knuckles, no bending of the DVD trying to pry it out. Just push the button (easier against hard surface) and pick up the DVD. That simple.

DVD: There are several sections to the DVD which you can jump to or play the whole thing. My suggestion is the first time watching (maybe even the first two times), and yes, you will want to watch it more than once, is to view the whole video in its entirety. After that jump to individual sections as you like. Be prepared with the pause button though! And if your player has slow-motion fast forward there are some parts when you will want to use it, especially on the scrolling text.

I enjoyed that Mike includes not only storm structures, but some very basics of forecasting and what he uses to get to that point. He doesn’t delve deep into the how’s of it, but gives enough to wet your appetite and want to learn more. I’m sure if there were enough time he would have gone further with it, but there is only so much that can fit onto a DVD - and he did have to include other stuff. It’s Storm Structure 101, not Forecasting 101. ;~)

Some of the things that I liked best:

• Basics of what to look for - be it the storms themselves (and he teaches throughout the whole video what you are looking at), surface & air plots, CAPE, convergence, wind shear, instability, moisture and more.
• He doesn’t overlay/include music over the whole video. Thank you! During the basic teachings near the beginning, the intro and the credits are pretty much the only places with music. Thankfully the rest of the video is natural sounds: rain, blowing wind, Mike talking, birds chirping, etc. And because he does this you really feel as if you are right there experiencing the same as he is. My only gripe is that he couldn’t bottle the wind and the smells of the storm to go with it. :D
• Mike telling us and showing us through add-ins what we are seeing during the chases.
• The storms themselves. Living in Florida we don’t normally get to see the ‘big’ picture of storms since there is not a whole lot of places that have giant open spaces. So being able to see the structures and what he was seeing at the time was amazing. Not sure I would want to capture tornadoes, well maybe if I knew that noone or nothing was getting hurt, but I know that I definitely want to go out and capture the structures themselves. They are just amazing, fascinating and mesmerizing. There is a reason they are called flying saucers, because that is exactly what they look like. Mind boggling!

Some of the things I liked least:

• The windshield wipers running when there was no rain. *laughs* It was like listening to nails on a chalkboard.
• The dinging sound when car door was held open. ;)
• Forecasting basics - not enough (already covered above) and the chases - not enough! So, it’s a really good thing that I’ve already put in my order for his other video, Instability Released. Can’t wait for that to arrive!

Overall impression: Absolutely worth the money! My nitpiks are just that, nitpiks, and they are only because I wasn’t there to experience it for myself. :D But through the video, we get to experience the visual, just not the emotional, although there were times when it was, like Mike driving and filming while on wrong side of road, and that last panning shot of a very large storm in Bartlett, Nebraska. WOW.

Yes, I know, nobody ever said it was, but it should be, darnit!

Early this morning, I published my vote on landfall for TS Edouard - and then about 2-3 minutes later, I changed it, and republished the new sites. Can I just say - this sucks! I had published the correct area the first time!

I was trying to get some sympathy from a ex-friend of mine, telling her what had happened and even though some of her words were sympathetic, her laughter betrayed her. With her permission, here is our conversation to show that who needs enemies, when your friends will do the trick! :P

Click on image link above to be taken to conversation

In all seriousness though - yes, she is still my friend, and yes, she will continue to laugh at me, and yes, I will continue to screw up! The ironic part of the story though is, normally when I make changes I do so in a new tab, in case of problems, and usually leave those tabs open for a little while, but this time, of all times, I shut down computer to give harddrive a little break from running my weather programs all the time.

Doesn’t it just figure!

That’s my sob story, and I’m sticking to it!

:P

Good Morning!

I know, I said I would give my vote as to landfall last night, well, I didn’t. But, I’m giving it now - between Orange and Port Arthur in Texas. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. Unless I change my mind. :D

I also thought while I have you captive captivated, I would just talk a little bit about tropical cyclones in general.

Do you know what the job of a tropical cyclone is? Yup, it has a job, a real honest to goodness purpose, nooo, it is not to displace people from their homes or worse. The job of a tropical cyclone is actually a very simple one.

To regulate the earth’s temperature.

That is it. Pure and simple.

Don’t want simple, okay, basically tropical cyclones are the air and heating system of earth. Their job is to pick up heat from the oceans and transfer it over to the upper level winds in the upper atmosphere, which in turn carries it the north and south poles. But why is that good thing? Well, by regulating the temperature, they keep the tropics from getting too hot and the poles from getting too cold.

Think about that for a moment though. Just imagine if we were to try and stop tropical cyclones, one way or another, then not only would be be screwing up the tropics, but the entire world.

But what would happen if we did it anyways and the ocean temperatures rose near the tropics? Well, in order for tropical cyclones to form, ocean temperatures must be at least 80° F for a depth of at least 150 feet. So it is highly possible and probable that because temperatures would become higher due to tropical cyclone meddling, which in turn could produce even more cyclones and more intense cyclones, among other things.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I hate to see anyone get hurt or have to deal with them, lord knows, I’ve been down that road myself - but they are better than the alternative.

So, with that in mind, here is the 5AM EDT update. ;)

AT 400 AM CDT…0900Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES… 80 KM…SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS AND ABOUT 85 MILES
…135 KM…EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR
…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
OVER THE UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS BY MIDDAY
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL
AND EDOUARD COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME ITS
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IN SOME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

So, there you have it… stay safe and to my family out there - let me know if ya need a bucket to bail with or an inflatible raft. ;-) We love ya!

Storm Report out of Sarasota County - Sarasota. Quarter sized hail reported near Bee Ridge Road and Beneva Road. Hmmm - I wonder if when it was falling, if anyone at the Village Green Golf Club yelled, FORE! ;)

And now for Tropical Cyclone Discussion Update on TS Edouard

WTNT45 KNHC 042053
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND
FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING…WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW
IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS…BUT THE SYSTEM’S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVN’T
CHANGED MUCH. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT. STRUCTURALLY…THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION…WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER
BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO
THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE
OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE…WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT
PRIOR TO LANDFALL…WITH THE SHIPS…LGEM…AND SUPERENSEMBLE
STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN
CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
THRESHOLD. IT’S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A
LOW-END HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. EDOUARD’S HEADING IS WOBBLING BETWEEN
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST…AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS EDOUARD MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW IS SHOWING A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE…AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
NEAR AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN BEFORE…AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 28.3N 91.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 28.6N 92.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 29.4N 95.0W 60 KT…JUST INLAND
36HR VT 06/0600Z 30.5N 97.0W 40 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 06/1800Z 31.5N 99.3W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Well, at last checkin Dew’s vote was for Port Arthur. I still haven’t decided - think I will wait until 8

It is only August 4th and it is already busy!

We’ve had a solar eclipse, lightning struck spectators watching a race in Norway, an avalanche on Pakistan’s K2 has killed 11 climbers so far, NWS Storm Prediction Center has updated the confirmed tornado totals - 994 confirmed so far with 33 confirmed deaths - and of those 994, 447 of them were from May. And I’m sure a lot more…

Speaking of tornadoes - It is now August 4th - and we have had none so far this month.

Oops - did I forget to mention Tropical Storm Edouard? Well, as of yesterday (August 3rd), he was a low pressure that had a low-level circulation near the center. So the Hurricane Hunters were sent to check it out and their findings were:

INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED
ENOUGH FOR THE LOW TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 36 KT AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB.

So, now we have a tropical depression - but wait - even that has changed. Which is where we are at as of right this minute, Tropical Storm Edouard. And as we all know, that can change anytime, just as there will be strengthening and weakening of most tropical systems before landfall. It is just the way it is.

I knew if I waited long enough that the newest update would be out - and here you go…

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 AM CDT MON AUG 04 2008

…EDOUARD CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O’CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES…135 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT
285 MILES…460 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY…WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE
CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
OR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS…AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL COUNTIES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION…28.1 N…90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

NNNN

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Whew… I need to catch my breath now - oh wait, I’m in Florida, there is no catching your breath, the air sucks it right out of you. Hmmm, Alaska is looking better and better. :-)