Christine Hudnall

Storm Report out of Sarasota County - Sarasota. Quarter sized hail reported near Bee Ridge Road and Beneva Road. Hmmm - I wonder if when it was falling, if anyone at the Village Green Golf Club yelled, FORE! ;)

And now for Tropical Cyclone Discussion Update on TS Edouard

WTNT45 KNHC 042053
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND
FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING…WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW
IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS…BUT THE SYSTEM’S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVN’T
CHANGED MUCH. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT. STRUCTURALLY…THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION…WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER
BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO
THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE
OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE…WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT
PRIOR TO LANDFALL…WITH THE SHIPS…LGEM…AND SUPERENSEMBLE
STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN
CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
THRESHOLD. IT’S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A
LOW-END HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. EDOUARD’S HEADING IS WOBBLING BETWEEN
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST…AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS EDOUARD MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW IS SHOWING A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE…AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
NEAR AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN BEFORE…AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 28.3N 91.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 28.6N 92.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 29.4N 95.0W 60 KT…JUST INLAND
36HR VT 06/0600Z 30.5N 97.0W 40 KT…INLAND
48HR VT 06/1800Z 31.5N 99.3W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Well, at last checkin Dew’s vote was for Port Arthur. I still haven’t decided - think I will wait until 8

It is only August 4th and it is already busy!

We’ve had a solar eclipse, lightning struck spectators watching a race in Norway, an avalanche on Pakistan’s K2 has killed 11 climbers so far, NWS Storm Prediction Center has updated the confirmed tornado totals - 994 confirmed so far with 33 confirmed deaths - and of those 994, 447 of them were from May. And I’m sure a lot more…

Speaking of tornadoes - It is now August 4th - and we have had none so far this month.

Oops - did I forget to mention Tropical Storm Edouard? Well, as of yesterday (August 3rd), he was a low pressure that had a low-level circulation near the center. So the Hurricane Hunters were sent to check it out and their findings were:

INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED ENOUGH FOR THE LOW TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 36 KT AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB.

So, now we have a tropical depression - but wait - even that has changed. Which is where we are at as of right this minute, Tropical Storm Edouard. And as we all know, that can change anytime, just as there will be strengthening and weakening of most tropical systems before landfall. It is just the way it is.

I knew if I waited long enough that the newest update would be out - and here you go…

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 AM CDT MON AUG 04 2008

…EDOUARD CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PORT O’CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES…135 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 285 MILES…460 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY…WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST OR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL COUNTIES INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION…28.1 N…90.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Whew… I need to catch my breath now - oh wait, I’m in Florida, there is no catching your breath, the air sucks it right out of you. Hmmm, Alaska is looking better and better. :-)