Christine Hudnall

Update: 02:16PM (1816z) - We have landfall!

DOLLY…A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE MADE LANDFALL ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AT 23/1800 UTC. ITS
POSITION WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 97.2
WEST…ABOUT 35 MILES…60 KM…NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
OR 40 MILES…65 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RAYMONDVILLE. BEFORE THE
LANDFALL…THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 964 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/231808.shtml?text 

Updated: 08:22AM -

Since the beginning of July, the tropics have been working hard, and they aren’t slowing down now.

Tropical Storm Cristobal is still hanging in there as he heads toward the North Atlantic at 35mph - 44N 59W.

Hurricane Dolly will be heading on shore in southeastern Texas / northeastern Mexico later this morning, her bands are already reaching out and touching them. In the 2:00AM CDT update, Dolly’s center was estimated to be at 25.4N 96.3W.

Can I just say - Uncle Stuart and Aunt Jeanne - ya’ll better have headed to Houston already! Be safe!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

And while you go and check out Dolly, why not take a look at 97L Invest - and what is behind it coming off of Africa.

I’d say the NHC will be hopping for awhile! :)

Good Morning!

We have our first Atlantic Hurricane of the season, and her name is Bertha.

WTNT32 KNHC 070845
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST MON JUL 07 2008

…BERTHA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON…

AT 500 AM AST…0900Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES…
1365 KM…EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR.
A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AS
BERTHA REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT
ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 75 MPH…120
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES…185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB…29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION…19.3 N…50.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Found original link through Dew’s site, and decided to check it out - lookin’ more organized to me.

What do you think, eh?

Navy/NRL Tropical Cyclone Page

Yup, Tropical Depression Two is now TS Bertha.

11:00PM Update (070308) lists the following:

Sustained winds: 45mph

Central Pressure: 1006mb

Located: 13.4N / 27W

Movement: W at 14mph

GOES Eastern Atlantic Visible Image - Tropical Storm Bertha - 1815 UTC, 03 July 2008

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO NOW BE CONSIDERED
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG
BURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.  BANDING FEATURES ARE
ALSO BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM LATE YESTERDAY THAT SHOWED SOME RELIABLE 25-30 KT WINDS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS...SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF GENESIS IN THIS AREA OVER A WEEK
AGO...A REMARKABLE ACHIEVEMENT.

MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING IS STEERING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...ABOUT 285/8. THIS RIDGING GETS STRONGER DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD MOTION BY LATE
TOMORROW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK UNTIL
THE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY REACHES A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG ABOUT 50W-55W AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS
THAT SHOW THE STRONGEST REFLECTION OF THE CYCLONE...SUCH AS THE
GFS/HWRF/GFDL...TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF MODELS KEEP A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE FIVE MODELS ABOVE BUT JUST A SHADE TO THE LEFT OF THAT
CONSENSUS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS NEAR THIS SYSTEM...SO THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR ON THE
FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS THE COOLER WATERS AND MORE
STABLE AIR IN ITS PATH. AFTER ABOUT 24 HR ON THE NHC TRACK...SSTS
DROP BELOW 26C AND STAY BELOW THAT THRESHOLD FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
THEREAFTER SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY AND MOST GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING STRENGTHENING
AT THE START AND END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN BETWEEN WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE COOLEST SSTS. THE
SHIPS/GFDL MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MAKING IT A HURRICANE WITHIN 5 DAYS. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/0900Z 12.6N  22.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 13.0N  24.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 13.8N  27.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 14.7N  30.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 15.8N  33.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 17.5N  40.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  46.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 23.0N  51.0W    55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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